CS2 Trade Up Calculator

Model a trade up contract before you commit the skins: output odds, float, and expected value against what your inputs cost.

#10

0/10 skins filled

FAQ

How does the CS2 tradeup contract work?

A tradeup contract takes 10 skins of the same rarity and produces 1 skin of the next rarity tier. The output skin comes from one of the same collections as your input skins, weighted by how many inputs you put from each collection.

How is the output float calculated?

The output float is: avg_input_float × (output_max_float − output_min_float) + output_min_float. Lowering your average input float gives you lower (better) output floats.

How are probabilities calculated?

Each possible output skin has an equal chance within its collection. The chance of getting a skin from a given collection equals the proportion of your 10 inputs that came from that collection.

What is the expected value?

Expected value is the probability-weighted average of all possible output skin prices. A positive difference vs. total input cost means the tradeup is theoretically profitable — though variance is high.

Can I use StatTrak™ skins?

In-game, 10 StatTrak inputs produce a StatTrak output. This calculator does not distinguish StatTrak variants — factor in the StatTrak premium separately when evaluating profitability.

Plan the Contract Before You Burn the Skins

A trade up is irreversible. Ten skins go in, one comes out, and the ten are gone whether or not you liked the result. That makes it one of the few things in Counter-Strike worth modelling on paper first, because the inputs are a real cost and the output is a distribution rather than a thing you chose.

This calculator takes the same ten inputs the game does and returns every skin the contract can produce, each with its own probability, its resulting float and its market price, plus the expected value of the whole contract against what you paid for the inputs.

How to Fill It In

Ten slots, one rarity. Pick your first skin and the calculator locks the rarity for the other nine, because the game will not accept a mixed contract. If you want to model a different tier, clear the first slot and the search opens back up.

Float per slot. Selecting a skin pre-fills the midpoint of its float range so you get a usable answer immediately, but the midpoint is a placeholder, not your skin. Type the real float from your inventory. Output float is driven by the average of your inputs, so this is the one field where guessing quietly changes the answer.

Collections matter more than skins. Which collections your ten inputs come from decides what the output can be, and in what proportion. Ten inputs from one collection give you a narrow, predictable set of outcomes. Spreading them across collections widens the range in both directions.

Reading the Result Honestly

A positive expected value does not mean a profitable contract. It means that if you ran the same contract many times the average would land above your input cost, and a single trade up is not many times. Most contracts return one of the cheaper outcomes, and the expected value is carried by results you will usually not get.

Two things this tool does not model: StatTrak variants, which trade at their own premium, and market movement between the moment you price your inputs and the moment you sell the output. Treat the number as a floor on how carefully to think, not a forecast.

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